deGROM HAD AN AMAZIN'​ SEASON... BUT SCHERZER SHOULD WIN THE CY YOUNG

This year's NL Cy Young Award race is expected to be extremely tight, with supporters of both Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer having strong cases to make. Max Scherzer led the league in strikeouts (300) and finished tied for the league lead in wins (18) and WHIP (0.91), but Jacob deGrom's historically low ERA (1.70), which was the 2nd best since 1996 (Zack Geinke had a 1.66 ERA in 2015) and his tie for the league lead with Scherzer in WHIP (0.91) has Mets' fans believin' that he should win the award.

I love Jacob deGrom! I love his talent and I love his attitude. In 2015 I sat behind home plate and watched deGrom pitch a gem against the Washington Nationals, stupefied by how hard it was to pick up the ball from his hand at the point of his whip-like release. If Jacob deGrom continues the excellence he's consistently shown since winning the Rookie of the Year in 2014 he should win at least one, if not multiple, Cy Young Awards in his career. However, I will explain below why I think that in this particular season, Max Scherzer is more deserving of the award.

A few years ago I co-authored a book, Z-score: How a Statistic Used in Psychology Will Revolutionize Baseball, with Jason Wirchin and Newsday baseball writer David Lennon. In the book we explained that it is necessary to reanalyze baseball statistics using standardized scores, like z-scores, because standardized scores frame statistics within their appropriate context (using the mean and standard deviation of each respective group). Standardized scores, such as z-scores, thus correct for factors like steroid use, rule changes and other nonspecific variables that change on yearly basis that can bias raw scores in all statistical categories. (Click here to see a more comprehensive explanation of z-scores during a talk I gave at the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2016)

As shown in the head-to-head comparison below, when the statistics for Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom are converted to z-scores, Scherzer comes out slightly ahead.

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WINS (League Average = 12.5)

Jacob deGrom (Raw Wins Total = 10): Z-Score = -0.73

Max Scherzer (Raw Wins Total = 18): Z-Score = 1.60

Advantage: Max Scherzer

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ERA (League Average =3.59)

Jacob deGrom (Raw ERA = 1.70): Z-Score = 2.39

Max Scherzer (Raw ERA = 2.53): Z-Score = 1.34

Advantage: Jacob deGrom

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Strikeouts (League Average =179.82)

Jacob deGrom (Raw Strikeouts Total = 269): Z-Score = 2.15

Max Scherzer (Raw Strikeouts Total = 300): Z-Score = 2.90

Advantage: Max Scherzer

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WHIP (League Average = 1.20)

Jacob deGrom (Raw WHIP = 0.91): Z-Score = 2.05

Max Scherzer(Raw WHIP = 0.91): Z-Score = 2.05

Advantage: Even

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HIGHEST SINGLE Z-SCORE

Max Scherzer: Z-Score = 2.90 (Strikeouts)

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HIGHEST AVERAGE Z-SCORE

Max Scherzer: Z-Score = 1.97

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CONCLUSION: Proponents of Jacob deGrom's case for the Cy Young Award will highlight his microscopic ERA and discount his low win total, noting the poor run support he received this year and the emerging sabermetric consensus that win totals for pitchers are poor indicators of performance. In addition, they will also boast that deGrom set an MLB record with 29 consecutive starts yielding three or fewer runs.

The case for deGrom is extremely strong and I think that voting for him for the Cy Young Award is certainly justified, given these arguments. However, I believe the case for Scherzer to win the Cy Young is slightly stronger. First, Scherzer led (or was tied for the league lead) in three of the four categories evaluated in this analysis (wins, strikeouts and WHIP). Furthermore, he also led another category (opponent's batting average) that was not evaluated in the current analysis.

But the real reason why I believe Max Scherzer should win the Cy Young over Jacob deGrom is because if you look at the statistical category that each pitcher most dominated (ERA for deGrom and strikeouts for Scherzer), Scherzer dominated his category to a greater extent than deGrom dominated his category. How do we know this? Look at the z-scores!

In the category that deGrom dominated most, ERA, his raw score of 1.70 yielded a z-score of 2.15. which is impressive, but not nearly as impressive as the z-score that Scherzer posted for his 300 strikeouts, which was 2.90. And this is why I believe that it is so necessary to supplement raw statistics with standardized scores, like z-scores: standardized scores provide the context necessary to more adequately compare performances.

As noted above, Jacob deGrom's 1.70 ERA was second only to Zack Grienke's 1.66 mark in 2015 for the best ERA since 1996 and from that perspective it would appear that deGrom's ERA might be the most impressive pitching statistic posted this season: easily outshining Max Scherzer's 300 strikeouts. However, z-score analyses take a more objective approach: one that incorporates the league mean and standard deviation into the analysis. As such, it is important to note that while Jacob deGrom's ERA was incredibly low overall, ERAs league-wide have been dropping since the early 2000s, as testing for performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) has become more prominent. In 2001, during the height of the steroid era - the year when Barry Bonds set the single-season home run mark with 73 home runs - the league-wide average for ERA in the NL was 4.15, but in 2018 it was just 3.59.

I must admit, looking at Jacob deGrom's raw ERA of 1.70 I initially thought he would have had a much higher z-score than 2.15, however, I fell victim to a subjective bias, helped in part by all of the glowing media coverage deGrom received this season. But this is a case study in how deceiving sole reliance on raw statistics can be - particularly when making comparisons across eras - without the context that standardized scores can provide. Hence, I hope that this example can help to change the culture of sports statistics analysis, with the use of standardized scores, like z-scores, emerging as a necessary supplement to raw data.

John G. Cottone, PhD, is a licensed psychologist in private practice and the author of "Z-score: How a Statistic Used in Psychology Will Revolutionize Baseball."